Toronto Maple Leafs forward Max Domi had a mixed bag of a season that can be best described as a tale of two halves.
In the first bit of the season, he struggled to produce offensively with an over a month and a half stretch where he failed to register a point. It took him until mid-December to finally get his first goal of the season, where he proceeded to go off for three straight games before then experiencing another lengthy drought. Things finally started to turn around in March in terms of his overall style of play and effectiveness, as Domi was a lot more noticeable and made an impact on the ice despite not producing as much as he is capable of.
In the playoffs was where he picked up the pace and showed why he was given a four-year contract last offseason. He was a physical force in both series and made some key offensive plays, which included an overtime winner in Game 2 against the Ottawa Senators and assisting on Max Pacioretty’s series winner. Domi was the most productive against the Florida Panthers with five points in seven games played, which included the team’s last goal of the season in Game 7 to give the fans a brief glimmer of hope before the contest unravelled.
There is no question that Domi is, therefore, a bit of an enigma among Leafs fans in terms of what the team needs to do with him. On one hand, some can’t overlook his shortcomings on defence and the fact that he is prone to lengthy droughts on offence, which makes it difficult to justify his continued presence on the roster. On the other hand, he is capable of stepping up when it matters and is willing to go to bat for his teammates via scrums or scraps. Some would prefer the Leafs move on from him, while others want to see him back in the top six alongside Auston Matthews. One thing that can’t be denied is that Domi has embraced all that comes with being a Leaf and is always willing to put in the wor,k even if it takes a while for the results to follow suit.
“He works on his craft so much on ice, off ice, how he takes care of his body, just how he is such a pro,” Mitch Marner said of Domi after his OT winner against the Senators. “I was lucky enough to get to see that in London as well when I was really young, to learn off of him was amazing, to see nothing has changed and he’s even more of a pro now, it’s pretty special. Yeah, that was really cool for him to get that, I was really happy for him.”
How the year went
Domi’s production this past season was a step back from what he was able to muster in his first campaign donning the Blue and White. Numerous factors could help explain why this was the case, but there is no question that he is capable of providing significantly more than he was able to provide last year.
A likely key contributor to the reduced production would have to be the adjustment to Craig Berube’s coaching system, which emphasizes north-south hockey and a more direct approach on offence. This is a stark contrast to what Sheldon Keefe used, which was more of an east-west style with plenty of pace off the rush that benefits quicker players like Domi. There is no doubt he has enjoyed being coached by a former enforcer in Berube, as he was one of the toughest players in the NHL back in his playing days in the same ilk as his dad, Tie, but the contrasting styles meant there was going to be a learning curve. It appears that this took Domi a while to get the hang of it, but he should be credited for how his season ended because he was at his best during the playoffs when things started clicking.
There was also a lower-body injury that took him out of commission for nearly a month early in the season, which may have played a factor in his struggles in the early going. Even when he returned from that ailment, it took Domi some time to get back up to speed, as whatever had bothered him clearly had affected the lower half of his body. As was the case with Matthews, who had struggled through the entire season with an ailment that dated back to training camp, it must have taken Domi a while to reach the point where he was able to manage his injury enough for him to get into the rhythm.
What didn’t help with him taking some time to find a rhythm was the revolving door of linemates that Domi had throughout the season. He did spend the majority of the season alongside Bobby McMann and Nick Robertson, and the line saw flashes of dominance followed by extended slumps between the three of them. Part of the struggles was that nobody in that trio was a defensive stalwart, and that meant they were prone to stretches where they were trapped in their own end for quite some time. There were moments where William Nylander filled in for Robertson, and there were plenty more offences created, but the defensive shortcomings made it a line Berube used sparingly.
One thing that the head coach should consider is pairing up Domi with Matthews and Matthew Knies, as the trio was statistically the most effective line Domi was on at even strength in terms of possession and scoring chances. Domi was at his most effective in 2023-24 when sharing the ice with the now-captain of the Leafs, and his playmaking abilities are a big part of why the pair work so well together. If Mitch Marner were to depart this summer, #11 could be someone worth considering as a replacement on the offensive side of the puck.
Statistical profile
| Category | Production | NHL rank |
| xGF% | 45.48% | 369th |
| GF% | 54.79 | 123rd |
| CF% | 46.55 | 350th |
| FF% | 47.68 | 315th |
| SCF% | 46.80 | 326th |
| HDCF% | 46.05 | 332nd |
| PDO | 1.023 | 74th |
All stats at 5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick (min. 900 minutes TOI)
The underlying numbers reflect on the type of season Domi had, in that the Leafs struggled to generate momentum and got less of scoring chances when he was on the ice. What is interesting to note is that his goals for percentage and high danger goals for percentage were high, and that correlates with his PDO being well above one. This means he was getting quite lucky on offence, and they helped boost his numbers a bit when they should otherwise be more down across the board.
It is also worth noting that the underlying numbers were not much better in the playoffs, while his GF% and PDO were even higher than they were in the regular season. In fairness, he was once again part of a revolving door of linemates since he was mostly used in a bottom-six role, but his offensive uptick was nonetheless able to shield the fact that he was a net-negative for his team on the defensive end.
As mentioned earlier, adjusting to Berube’s system might have had something to do with his numbers going down as well as his lower-body injury. That is reflected in the fact that the underlying numbers were better for Domi last year, where he was mostly healthy and in a system that he is more accustomed to. His possession numbers were above average, his goals to expected goals were not too far off, and his luck metric was at a more sustainable number. Part of it was helped by stretches alongside Matthews, but the point stands that Domi has it in him to be a positive contributor in all aspects of the game.
He is at his best when he is a sidekick to a stronger player and with someone who is defensively sound to allow him more room to be creative on offence. Domi is not going to become a defensive stalwart at this stage of his career, and that’s okay if he can be put in a position to succeed to mitigate the shortcomings. He is certainly capable of getting it done in the faceoff circle, but is far from the best option to be a centre for the aforementioned reasons, so it makes sense that he slots up to the wing in the top-six going forward.
While it would be easy to try and move off his contract, the Leafs should instead try their best to get the most out of what he does well at: generating offence. Reuniting him with Matthews for an extended period of time could be the trick that gets him back on track and, in turn, be a net-positive for his team.
